Table of Contents

District Projection Summary

Understanding the Report

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there was no testing in the spring of 2020, so the projection reports changed as follows:

  • All projections assume the 2019 average schooling experience.
  • Projections to grade-level assessments are made to one grade out.
  • Projections for grade 4 math and ELA use two predictors rather than three.
  • Projections for kindergarten through grade 3 reading and math are not provided because there is not enough testing history.

The data in this report varies based on the type of projection you selected.

Projections to Non-College Readiness Assessments

Students are grouped based on probability ranges for the selected projection. The first rows of the table display the numbers and percentages of students whose probabilities of reaching the selected performance levels fall into specified ranges. Each row is represented by a slice in the pie graph.

Numbers are not rounded when calculating probabilities. However, for display purposes they are rounded in the table. Students are placed into groups using non-rounded numbers. Therefore, it is possible that two students with the same number on screen could be in two different groups due to rounding.

ColorProbability of Reaching the Selected Performance LevelInterpretation

Green

Greater than 70%Students are likely to reach the selected performance level or above

Yellow

Between 40% and 70%

Students may or may not reach at least the selected performance level

Light Red

Less than 40%

Students are not likely to reach the selected performance level

Two additional rows in the table list the numbers and percentages of students who do not have projections for the selected assessment.

ColorGroup of StudentsExplanation

Blue

Students at or above proficiency

These students passed the selected assessment with a score of Level 3 or above. This row appears only for EOC assessments.

WhiteStudents without a projection

Examples of reasons why students might not have projections:

  • Insufficient data. Students must have the minimum number of prior scores across grades and subjects.
  • Students tested in the same subject at a higher level. Students who have scores for Algebra II do not receive projections to Algebra I.

If you have access to student data, you can click on the values in the Student Count column or the corresponding pie slice to see the list of students in that group. In the list, the far-right column displays each student's probability of reaching the selected performance level. Click this value to view a student's projection report.

Projections to College Readiness Assessments

In this report, students are grouped based on probability ranges for the selected projection. The first three rows of the table display the number and percentage of students whose probabilities of reaching the selected score fall into specified ranges. Each row is represented by a slice in the pie graph.

ColorProbability of Reaching the Selected Performance LevelInterpretationRecommendation

Green

Greater than 70%

Students are likely to reach at least the selected performance level or benchmarkContinue with students' current academic programs, investigate what has worked – students are on a path to reaching or exceeding the selected performance level or benchmark

Yellow

Between 40% and 70%

Students may or may not reach at least the selected performance level or benchmark

Investigate and implement adjustments to students' academic programs to increase their likelihood of reaching or exceeding the selected performance level or benchmark

Light Red

Less than 40%

Students are not likely to reach the selected performance level or benchmark

Investigate and implement significant changes to students' academic programs to increase their likelihood of reaching the selected performance level or benchmark

WhiteN/AStudents without a projection.

Numbers are not rounded when calculating the probability of proficiency. However, for display purposes they are rounded in the table. Students are placed into groups using non-rounded numbers. Therefore, it is possible that two students with the same number on screen could be in two different groups due to rounding.

If you have access to student data, you can click on the values in the Student Count column or the corresponding pie slice to see the list of students in that group. In the list, the far-right column displays each student's probability of reaching the selected performance level or benchmark. Click on this value to view a student's projection report.

Filtering by Student Group

By default, the report includes all students in the school or district who appear in the data. You can filter the list of students and view the report for a demographic subset.

To filter the list of students included in the report, click Select Student Groups above the table. In the Student Groups window, you can choose any combination of race, sex, and demographic groups.

If you choose more than one group within a category, the report includes students who are in either group. For example, if you choose Black and Hispanic, the report includes both Black students and Hispanic students.

If you choose multiple groups across categories, the report includes only students who are in the selected groups in all categories. For example, if you choose Male and Students with Disabilities, the report includes only boys who are identified as students with disabilities.

When you are finished making selections, click Submit. The report includes only those groups of students you selected.

To remove the filters, click Clear Student Groups above the table. The report now includes all students in the selected grade.